Daily Market Commentary
7-24-2024
Morning Comments
- Technical resistance for corn is above the market at $4.27.
- Managed money was estimated to have bought 7500 contracts of corn, bringing their short position to -326k.
- Ethanol plants are thought to have over half of their needs covered for August. Margins remain strong at around +23-27c/gal
- Brazilian corn exports are seen at 4.56 mmt in July. USDA announced 200 tmt of corn sold to unknown at 8 am this morning. Traders thought it was most likely Mexico.
- If non-threatening weather persists in the US, look for rallies to remain limited. December corn has been down during the month of July in 7 out of the past 10 years. The largest July performance was +4% in 2018. This type of performance would push December to $4.38.
- Producers were sellers on the rally with old crop processor bids approaching $11.40 cash.
- Managed money bought an estimated 5.5k contracts of soybeans leaving them short -168k contracts.
- Some technical analysts think the soybean rally can continue to 10.95. A cooler and wetter forecast could stop November bean futures from trading over $11. Look for weather to dictate direction.
- Through the first half of the year, China has purchased 34.43 MMT (1.26 billion bushels) of soybeans from Brazil which is a record for the period and a 16.1% increase from a year ago. During that same period, China has bought 12.2 MMT (448 million bushels) from the U.S. which is 27% less than a year ago. This is one of the reasons U.S. soybean prices have been under pressure.
- Weather forecasts are trending hotter and drier for the northern plains and the northeast corn belt. Soybean yields in these areas could also be affected if rains fail to come.
Old Crop Corn: New Crop Corn: Old Crop Beans: New Crop Beans:
Supply – Neutral Supply – Bearish Supply – Bullish Supply – Neutral
Demand – Bullish Demand – Bullish Demand – Bullish Demand - Bullish,
Technicals – Bearish Technicals – Bearish Technicals – Bearish Technicals – Bearish
John R. Anderson
Vice President of Grain
Farmers Union Cooperative
563-380-2311
Managing risk to optimize price
Grain and oilseed markets can be complex and fluid, and the best opportunity one minute can change in the next. The grain team at Farmers Union Cooperative is here to provide a strategic, forward-thinking approach to marketing that will help you manage volatility and realize a better overall outcome from your grain sales.
Because of our geographic location, we have several choices in where we sell grain. This provides us with unique opportunities to market your grain and diversify your portfolio to manage risk.
We often work with our farmer-members to put together sales to achieve a better price. Whether you sell to us, a processor, or a river terminal, we’ll help you capture a better price with delivery terms that work for you (whether you deliver or utilize our services).
Our facilities
We have facilities in Ossian, Fort, Postville, Waucoma and Manchester that receive corn, soybeans and oats. Our West Union location handles corn only.
Grain delivered to our feed mills is used in the area as livestock feed. You can also utilize our grain bank service for your own feed needs.
We make regular investments in our facilities to ensure a smooth unloading process, and we have storage of around 5 million bushels.
During the busy fall season, we flex our hours to keep grain moving and get you back to the field as soon as possible.
Farmers Union Grain Contacts
For more information on any of our grain services, contact Farmers Union’s grain team:
Farmers Union Grain Locations
Cash Bids
Futures
Grain Programs
We offer numerous specialized marketing contracts that help spread risk and take advantage of opportunities when they arise. Please talk to us about your objectives, and we’ll work with you to choose contracts that fit your risk tolerance and profit goals.
In addition to grain contracts, we offer services such as discounted drying at the beginning of the fall season. We also can do on-farm pickup with our trucks, and we can deliver to direct-ship locations at your request.