Market Notes

Updated: 2/27/2026

The grain markets are rallying into the end of the week and month, and into March deliveries. Soybeans took almost a 30-cent quick hit yesterday on a report that “preparations were faltering” for the coming Trump-Xi summit. There's no doubt farmers were taking the opportunity to sell as well with prices re-approaching November’s government-shutdown highs. However, almost all that loss has been recovered in the last 22 or so hours as the complex looks to finish the month strong.

Cumulative corn export sales are now 91 mbu ahead of pace after the USDA has consistently raised their annual estimate. Which is now more than 600 mbu that their initial estimate last summer. Cumulative soybean sales are now 77 mbu behind pace as the UDSA has decreased that forecast more than 200 mbu since their initial estimate. Further cuts are in danger if we don’t see export inspections pick up soon. Some optimism still lingers around Trump’s claim that China will purchase another 8 MMT of soybeans from the US this crop year.

The LSEG Vessel map to the right shows current bulkers carrying soybeans – all one really needs to know about the soybean export market at this point in time. U.S. soybean inspections are running 16% behind last year on a seasonal basis, with sales 5% behind. China has no real financial incentive to fill their soybean import needs from anywhere other than lower-priced Brazil, unless they decide to honor their pledge for an additional eight million tons of U.S. purchases. However, there is a real chance that additional domestic crush bushels could cancel out any export shortage, and soybeans will have to continue to push for additional 2026 acres with the March Prospective Plantings report still more than a month out.

The market remains in a sideways pattern, but is testing major resistance at $4.44 in the May contract. Next resistance is at $4.57. Support is from $4.32 down to $4.26 in the May. Monday’s trade was demand driven early, but the mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs pushed the market back to unchanged levels by the close.

The SCOTUS ruling today took on a stronger importance with the announcement of new global tariffs on all imports. Headline news once again is the main feature and probably will be for the next few days as the dust settles. If the May trades above $11.65, the next resistance is from $11.78 up to $11.90. Support is from $11.36 down to $11.20.

The next big fundamental report that the market is waiting for from USDA is the March 31 prospective plantings report that will reveal the results of its farmer survey on planting intentions. Those surveys should go out later this week. The survey may not provide the clarity that we hope it does. Two items that may significantly impact those planting intentions are the final EPA regulations on biofuel policy and the trade agreement currently being worked on between China and the United States. Neither of those are expected to become public before the USDA survey window closes. As such, the debate over this year's planted acreage will likely continue well into June when we get the next farmer survey.

John R. Anderson, Vice President of Grain