Daily Market Commentary

10-10-2025

Morning Comments

Corn market closed slightly lower as US harvest on soybeans winding up in main Corn Belt states and switch over to corn. The 100-day MA continues to provide stiff resistance. US farmer selling remains on the light side with producers not to the end of the grace period of having to decide to store or sell. Country contacts indicate if cash prices are below $4.00 and with no details about a US govt aid package for US Farmers, the US farmer will likely sit tight. With US govt shutdown continuing, the next WASDE crop report will be the Nov 10th report. Soybeans and products lower today on lack of fresh export news (for the US anyway) and with US harvest nearing the 70-75% complete nationally according to some analysts. SX stalled out at $10.30 again as that level seems to find some producer selling in parts of the Midwest ($9.50 cash). Country sources indicate if farmers could get US bail out aid of 50 cents/bu so the farmer nets $10.00 cash, it would trigger movement. But until then the producer is willing to sit tight until more is known. Corn futures technical strength level is 50% neutral for December futures and 46% neutral for March futures at this time of writing.

With a lack of Chinese buying of soybeans, some analysts are using a US export estimate closer to 1.400 billion bu vs the USDA’s 1.685 billion bu. This would push US ending soybean stocks toward 550-575 billion bu if US yield remains near 53.5 bpa.

The corn resistance window running from $4.23up to $4.26. Minor support remains is at $4.14 with strongest support from $4.10 down to $4.07. The market remains range bound which could mean a test of support is next up for the Dec contract. With the government shutdown still in place, a lot of market data is missing from traders view and if they are looking more to technical information.

The bean technical picture is unchanged as the market remains range bound. Resistance running from $10.27up to $10.32 continues to hold advances while minor support is at $10.20 is being tested. The next support runs from $10.15 down to $10.05. The long-term technical picture still leans bullish but the short-term indicator while neutral are turning more bearish. Near term the market is looking at harvest pressure being a negative while reports of lower yields is supportive. Spreading was a main feature yesterday with 45% of the November volume traded in the spread to January. Bean technical strength level is 54% neutral for November futures and 50% neutral for January futures.

John R. Anderson

Vice President of Grain

Farmers Union Cooperative

563-380-2311

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10/24/2025

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