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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/17 10:47

   New-Crop Futures Down Midday Monday

   Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher with new crop 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 
to 5 cents higher with new crop 7 to 8 cents lower and wheat 9 to 25 cents 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 180 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.09 lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are 
firmer with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals 
are firmer with $27.50 higher.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday, with new crop flat to 1 cent 
lower; bouncing off the overnight lows into the day session but failing to hold 
the highs even with China securing another 1.7 million metric tons of new crop 
and 128,000 of new crop going to Mexico. Ethanol margins should get a boost 
from the corn pullback with energy holding the upper end of the range. Weather 
looks to warm up with better moisture for many areas. Brazil continues to 
struggle with dryness during pollination with crop estimates still falling but 
time running out to change the crop size much in either direction, albeit with 
some relief rains out there. Corn basis wobbled a little bit with the river 
issues. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.892 million metric tons. 
Weekly crop progress should show corn planting nearing the home stretch and 
emergence just ahead of normal with warmer weather needed. On the July 
contract, chart resistance is the 20-day at $6.69, with support the fresh low 
at $6.33.


   Soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with new crop 4 to 6 cents lower 
as trade backs away from the front month test of $16.00 with little fresh news. 
Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil 1.40 cents to 1.50 cents higher. Planters 
will continue to roll short term with some areas of rain slowing action and 
warmer temps to boost emergence by the end of the week, with planting to be 
well ahead of normal and emergence just above average. Weekly export 
inspections improved a bit at 308,800 metric tons. South America should 
continue to see shipping progress short term, while domestic crush will carry 
U.S. basis with oil leading during the day session. On the July soybean chart, 
support is the 20-day at $15.47, with resistance the fresh high at $16.39.


   Wheat trade is 9 to 25 cents lower at midday with Minneapolis the downside 
leader with winter wheats holding up better. Seasonal weather on the Plains 
should boost growth with big rains in parts of Kansas and a better forecast for 
the North, with conditions likely steady for winter wheat and heading trailing, 
while spring wheat planting hits the homestretch and emergence likely just 
short of 50% to put the first condition report to next week. Weekly export 
inspections were pretty good at 685,500 metric tons. Other Northern Hemisphere 
weather will continue to be watched as well with little fresh news. The dollar 
remaining at the lower end of the range should add support as well. KC July on 
the chart has remains below the 20-day at $6.88 with the lower Bollinger Band 
below that at $6.31.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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